Price & Technical Structure
- The stock experienced a short-term decline, with a 1-month return of -17.002% and a 3-month return of -7.252%.
- The trend is bearish, indicated by a negative trend alignment score of -3 and the price being below the 9, 21, and 50-day EMAs.
- Momentum is weak, with an RSI of 28.7, suggesting oversold conditions, and a bearish MACD.
- Volatility is present, with the price positioned at 23.05% of the Bollinger Band width, and an annualized volatility of 25.05%.
- The stock is trading at -18.55% from its 52-week high and -18.55% from its recent drawdown peak, reflecting significant downward pressure.
The stock is currently in a bearish trend, characterized by negative price action relative to key EMAs and a low trend alignment score. Momentum indicators like RSI are in oversold territory, while MACD signals a bearish bias. Volatility remains a factor, with the price near the lower end of the Bollinger Bands. The stock's structural positioning shows it is significantly off its 52-week high and experiencing a notable drawdown, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
Weekly Momentum
- The stock price rose by 8.1% this week, driven by positive technical indicators and news regarding strategic oil reserve development.
- The stock's RSI moved to 29.4, indicating oversold conditions, with a WoW increase of 5.9, suggesting improving momentum.
- A potential US-Iran peace deal was discussed as a factor that could lead to lower crude oil prices, potentially impacting upstream oil and gas companies.
- ONGC's subsidiary, OPaL, received board approval to raise up to
4,471 crore through the private placement of Non-Convertible Debentures.
- The company's valuation metrics remain attractive, with a PE ratio of 9.4x and a PB ratio of 0.9x.
ONGC experienced a positive price movement this week, breaking a recent downtrend and showing signs of oversold conditions easing. The stock's upward trend is supported by news of a significant strategic oil reserve project and a subsidiary's fundraising approval. However, broader market discussions about geopolitical events could introduce volatility. The company's fundamentals remain solid with attractive valuation multiples.
Quarterly Analysis
Net Profit rose to ₹13,678 Crores, showing strong growth driven by revenue increases and improved profit attributable to parent company owners.
Revenue increased to ₹173,805 Crores, reflecting growth both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, supported by higher Other Income.
Expenses saw a moderate increase quarter-over-quarter to ₹160,864 Crores, while Finance Costs decreased by about 12% year-over-year.
Profit Loss For Period (cont. ops) declined slightly quarter-over-quarter but showed strong year-over-year growth, indicating a mixed short-term trend.
Exceptional Items had a significant negative impact, shifting from a positive contribution to a notable loss.
The quarter's performance was characterized by strong overall profit growth, driven by revenue increases and improved profit attribution to owners. However, this was partially offset by a significant negative impact from exceptional items and a slight sequential decline in profit from continuing operations.
The company reported strong Net Profit growth, with an increase of about 14% quarter-over-quarter and a substantial 54% year-over-year, reaching ₹13,678 Crores. This performance was supported by revenue increases and a significant year-over-year improvement in profit attributable to parent company owners. Profit Or Loss Attributable To Owners Of Parent rose about 8% quarter-over-quarter and 48% year-over-year to ₹10,820 Crores.
Revenue experienced growth, increasing by about 4% quarter-over-quarter and 2% year-over-year to ₹173,805 Crores. This growth was supported by Other Income, which rose about 2% quarter-over-quarter and 13% year-over-year to ₹3,368 Crores. This indicates a positive trend in the company's top line.
Expenses increased by about 4% quarter-over-quarter to ₹160,864 Crores, though they saw a slight decrease of about 0.3% year-over-year. Notably, Finance Costs decreased by about 12% year-over-year to ₹3,070 Crores, which is a positive development for profitability. However, Exceptional Items had a significant negative impact, moving from a positive ₹45.1 Crores in the previous quarter to a negative ₹462 Crores in the current quarter.